Case Overview
The item pool includes consumer-grade, restricted, and classified skins, with a constrained presence of covert-tier entries. The rarity distribution is smooth, with a strong concentration of outcomes in mid-tier categories. Higher-tier items are included but occupy a smaller share of the probability space, resulting in a balanced structure with moderate dispersion.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is supported by frequent mid-tier outcomes that maintain stable market activity. Premium items contribute incrementally due to lower probability weighting. Variance is moderate, reflecting the balance between consistent returns and occasional higher-value outcomes. Risk factors include dependence on sustained demand for Mirage collection skins and limited exposure to top-tier items, which constrains deviation from the mean.