Case Overview
The Angel case uses a tiered item pool rather than a uniform distribution. Common outcomes account for most of the probability mass, while rarer skins occupy smaller portions. Premium items can therefore contribute materially to theoretical expected value even when they occur infrequently. Market positioning depends on the full probability-weighted pool, not on isolated high-value skins. Useful indicators include liquidity, variant dispersion, demand consistency, and the share of total value concentrated in the upper tail.
Value and Risk Factors
Expected value is calculated by multiplying each item's market value by its probability and summing the results. A case may contain high-value skins while still having a lower average return if their probabilities are small and most outcomes are lower-value. Variance also matters: greater concentration in rare items increases dispersion between typical results and the statistical mean. Assessment should include market volatility, transaction liquidity, reference-value accuracy, and changes in demand for individual finishes. Stable mid-tier demand can reduce sensitivity to isolated price shifts, while reliance on scarce items makes expected return more dependent on a narrow part of the distribution.